The best guess hypothesis in multistage inference
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The Best Guess Hypothesis in Multistage Inference i
Intuitive multistage inferences are typically excessive when compared with the optimal model, a modified form of Bayes' theorem. One explanation for this excessiveness is that the S primarily attends to the implications of the probable event described by the first-stage inference, neglecting the implications of less likely events. If a S follows this strategy, called a "best guess" strategy, th...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
سال: 1973
ISSN: 0030-5073
DOI: 10.1016/0030-5073(73)90024-x